Polling Perception: Republican Ladies Voters on Abortion

Forward of the 2024 Republican Nationwide Conference, the social gathering has softened its language round entry to abortion in a draft model of the social gathering platform, mirroring the stance of the previous president and Republican nominee, Donald Trump. Many main media retailers report that this platform change is probably going a transfer to scale back vulnerability on the problem of abortion within the run as much as the election. The truth is, this would be the first time in 40 years that the Republican Occasion’s platform doesn’t name for a federal ban on abortion.

Whereas a majority of rank-and-file Republicans oppose a legislation guaranteeing a nationwide proper to abortion, many assist legal guidelines permitting entry to abortion in sure conditions. For instance, most Republican and Republican-leaning impartial ladies voters say they assist leaving IT as much as the states to determine whether or not abortion is authorized (60%) or a legislation establishing a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks of being pregnant (57%). However massive majorities of Republican ladies additionally assist legal guidelines defending entry to abortion for sufferers who’re experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies (79%) and a federal legislation defending entry to abortions within the case of rape or incest in all states even the place abortion is banned (69%).

Republican ladies of reproductive age, ages 18 to 49, maintain barely much less conservative views on abortion insurance policies and a slim majority assist a legislation guaranteeing a nationwide proper to abortion (53%). Related shares of youthful Republican ladies voters assist leaving IT as much as the states to determine whether or not abortion is authorized (54%) or assist a nationwide ban on abortion at 15 weeks (53%). With about half of youthful Republican ladies voters supporting every of those three coverage proposals, IT is evident that there’s some uncertainty amongst these voters on how abortion entry ought to be addressed on the federal stage. Nonetheless, most youthful Republican ladies assist entry to abortion in sure instances, most notably in cases the place sufferers are experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies.

Republican ladies voters’ views on abortion usually are not monolithic. Whereas most (58%) Republican ladies voters determine as “pro-life,” many (40%) say on the problem of abortion they’re extra “pro-choice.” As well as, half of Republican ladies voters suppose abortion ought to be authorized in all or most instances, the identical because the share who say abortion ought to be unlawful. Simply 13%, or about one in eight, Republican ladies voters say abortion ought to be unlawful in all instances.

As soon as once more, views differ barely by age, with related shares of Republican ladies voters of reproductive age (ages 18 to 49) saying they determine as “pro-life” (49%) and “pro-choice” (51%), whereas two-thirds of older Republican ladies voters determine as “pro-life.” As well as, a majority (56%) of youthful Republican ladies voters say abortion ought to be authorized in at the least most instances, together with one in 5 who say abortion ought to be authorized in all instances.

Whereas two-thirds of Republican ladies voters say they belief former President Trump to do a greater job deciding abortion coverage on this nation in comparison with President Biden, 1 / 4 of Republican ladies say they belief neither presidential candidate to do a greater job on this situation. Moreover, one in three Republican ladies voters (34%) say neither political social gathering does a greater job of looking for the pursuits of ladies. The truth is, 16% of Republican ladies of reproductive age say they suppose the Democratic Occasion does a greater job of looking for the pursuits of ladies than the Republican Occasion.

As soon as a cornerstone situation for the Republican Occasion – with most single-issue abortion voters being pro-life and Republican prior to the Dobbs determination – abortion is now not a prime voting situation for Republican voters since Roe v. Wade was overturned. Fewer than one in ten Republican ladies (7%) say abortion is a very powerful situation to their vote (in comparison with 13% of Democratic ladies voters), properly behind points resembling inflation (47%) and immigration (26%). Abortion additionally ranks decrease than inflation for impartial ladies (10%) alongside immigration and threats to democracy as their most essential voting situation. The dashboard reveals how abortion ranks as a voting situation for the totally different teams of ladies voters together with partisans, throughout age teams, and race and ethnicity.

Whereas the problem will not be motivating Republican ladies to go to the polls (simply 3% of Republican ladies voters say they might solely vote for a candidate who agrees with them on abortion), the social gathering’s general stance – which had been largely seen as anti-abortion – could also be disenchanting some voters.

The KFF Survey of Ladies Voters, carried out earlier this summer season, reveals many ladies voters, together with Republican ladies, usually are not glad with their decisions of presidential candidates. Whereas Republican ladies report being barely extra motivated to vote in comparison with Democratic ladies, youthful Republican ladies largely really feel just like the Republican Occasion doesn’t share their views on reproductive Health points and wish abortion to be authorized typically. Whereas many early reviews concerning the drafted modifications to the Republican Nationwide Conference social gathering platform speculate that they’re written to appease the Republican nominee for President, these modifications additionally, maybe coincidentally, might assist the social gathering attraction to a key voting base – Republican ladies.