A principally graphical day by day curated roundup of the markets and the economic system from Nasdaq’s IR crew.
#marketseverywhere
“IT will all the time be doable to lift dwelling requirements additional by decreasing the quantity of a useful resource that’s used to supply a given output. Progress is subsequently indefinitely ‘sustainable’.”
-Matt Ridley, How Innovation Works
| “Diary: 69 days till 1st Fed reduce, 82 ’til US nationwide debt up one other $1tn (to $35tn), 172 ’til US yield curve inverted longest interval since pre-’29 crash, 299 ’til US election.”
| “geopolitics inflationary…transit volumes via Pink Sea/Suez Canal down 35-45% previous 4 weeks; Pink Sea 12% world commerce, 30% container visitors)…international freight charges up 120% previous 6 weeks”
-BofA’s Michael Hartnett, The Movement Present
* supply: BofA, Michael Hartnett, The Movement Present
1) KEY TAKEAWAYS
1) Equities + Gold + Oil HIGHER / TYields + Greenback LOWER
-BlackRock to purchase World Infrastructure Companions for $12.5 Billion -WSJ
-Wholesale costs unexpectedly fell 0.1% in Dec in optimistic inflation signal -CNBC
-JPM Chase revenue falls after $2.9BN charge from regional financial institution rescues -CNBC
-Financial institution of America studies decrease This fall revenue, hit by regulatory cost -CNBC
-Citigroup posts $1.8 billion fourth-quarter loss after litany of costs -CNBC
-Wells Fargo increased This fall revenue, helped by increased charges & price slicing -CNBC
-Uranium gained 4% yesterday, closing at a brand new excessive
* supply: Oxford Economics
DJ +0.2% S&P500 +0.4% Nasdaq +0.4% R2K +1.2% Cdn TSX +0.7%
Stoxx Europe 600 +1.0% APAC shares HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 3.924%
Greenback LOWER, Gold $2,059, WTI +3%, $74; Brent +3%, $80, Bitcoin $45,289
2) “the timing and tempo of fee cuts are nonetheless up for debate, so watch out for close to time period volatility”
* supply: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
3) 2024 outlook not clear… | massive caps vs remainder of market | “Sustainable restoration in small caps not occurring but”
Increased Beta Shares Proceed To Exhibit “Zero To Hero” As Sentiment Swings Persist
* supply: Piper Sandler’s Michael Kantrowitz
4) 2024 debate: financial mushy or exhausting touchdown…or perhaps no touchdown? | Citi’s Financial Shock Index at 0 and has been trending decrease, as in financial information has not been stunning to the upside…
* supply: Yardeni Analysis
5) job market could have cooled off however nonetheless sturdy… | jobless claims nonetheless at low ranges
* supply: Oxford Economics
6) Getting bubbly? A market dichotomy
* supply: Grindstone Intelligence
7) Is that this sustainable?
* supply: Oxford Economics
8) all eyes on earnings…
“Given considerations available in the market a couple of doable financial slowdown or recession, have analysts lowered EPS estimates greater than regular for S&P 500 corporations for the fourth quarter?
THE ANSWER IS YES. In the course of the fourth quarter, analysts lowered EPS estimates for the quarter by a bigger margin than common.” -John Butters, Factset Perception
* supply: Factset Perception
9) NEXT WEEK:
“Political occasions would be the huge focus with the Taiwanese election, the Iowa Caucus within the US on the Republican aspect, and the World Financial Discussion board’s annual
assembly at Davos. As well as, traders will intently monitor developments within the
Center East following the US and UK strikes towards Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Within the financial sphere, consideration will centre on the US shopper with indicators
together with the retail gross sales report and the College of Michigan survey. In China,
the spotlight will likely be This fall GDP numbers whereas within the UK and Japan, traders will
obtain inflation studies. From central banks, there would be the Fed’s Beige Guide
and ECB’s account of the December assembly. Notable earnings embrace TSMC
and Goldman Sachs.” -Deutsche Financial institution
* supply: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE
Hedge Funds Are Stepping Up Publicity to ESG Methods, UBS Says – BNN
-“Hedge funds have continued to step up sustainability integration into funding methods,” in keeping with UBS. There’s additionally “a subset pursuing devoted sustainable funding deployment through fairness lengthy/quick and credit score methods, principally inside thematic equities and inexperienced, social and sustainable bonds.”
-The funding business is eyeing new potentialities inside ESG because the prospect of decrease rates of interest in 2024 encourages bets that inexperienced belongings will get well from the beating they obtained final yr.
ESG Fund Flows & Efficiency by Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
ESG fund flows in 2023 lagged prior years, nevertheless, efficiency improved.
* supply: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS
- Rexall pharmacy chain put up on the market; proprietor rethinks Canadian footprint-TGAM
- CVS to shut some pharmacies inside Goal shops–RTRS
- EU investigators to examine China’s BYD, Geely and SAIC in EV probe-RTRS
- Tesla shares drop on China worth cuts and German plant shutdown–BBG
- Elliott in talks to promote Italian NPL servicer to native agency DoValue-BBG
- Airbus units gross sales document in 2023 amid surging jet demand-BBG
- JSW Vitality in superior phases to finalise traders in arm JSW Neo–CNBC
Oil/Vitality Headlines: 1) China’s 2023 crude oil imports hit document as gasoline demand recovers-RTRS 2) Citi lowers Brent worth outlook for 2024 and 2025 on oversupply fears-RTRS 3) Alberta oil manufacturing rises to document that tops China’s production-BBG 4) Transport Suggested to keep away from key international commerce method level after airstrikes-BBG 5) Enforcement of G7 worth cap hitting Russian oil- US treasury official-RTRS 6) Bulgaria changing Russian crude with oil from Kazakhstan, Iraq, Tunisia-RTRS