Weekly Chartstopper: December 12, 2025

This Week

As soon as once more, markets had been centered on the Federal Reserve and synthetic intelligence (AI) funding this week.

For the Fed, they continue to be extra involved concerning the Jobs/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-u-s-may-be-drastically-overstating-Jobs-numbers-741c635d?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeqXBBqYvX4mHoaptSTBt7n8yhhfMzRAEILqTb6oF-8aOxu02Q7zimh&gaa_ts=693b3899&gaa_sig=HH3aYqk5dFdVfB5u0dan8Z5qln_Cmfg-zMqhHiaCkyHGYo1t_BKAZ13IbwsJep9T9pBCp7CP9Q9HKUIacAPR4Qpercent3Dpercent3D” goal=”_blank” data-outlook-id=”cfc5ad65-5125-4f6e-9810-50c8c508a55b” data-mce-href=”https://www.wsj.com/financial system/Jobs/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-u-s-may-be-drastically-overstating-Jobs-numbers-741c635d?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeqXBBqYvX4mHoaptSTBt7n8yhhfMzRAEILqTb6oF-8aOxu02Q7zimh&gaa_ts=693b3899&gaa_sig=HH3aYqk5dFdVfB5u0dan8Z5qln_Cmfg-zMqhHiaCkyHGYo1t_BKAZ13IbwsJep9T9pBCp7CP9Q9HKUIacAPR4Qpercent3Dpercent3D”>weak labor market than above-target inflation. Given this, they lower 25 foundation factors for the third straight assembly, bringing the fed funds fee right down to a 3-year low of three.75%. From right here, although, they signaled a pause is probably going since they anticipate the financial system to improve in 2026. Particularly, they forecast sooner actual GDP progress (2.3% vs. 1.7% in 2025), slowing core inflation (2.5% vs. 3.0%), and barely decrease unemployment (4.4% vs. 4.5%), and only one fee lower (markets see two). 

Shortly after the Fed assembly, Oracle’s earnings renewed AI spending concerns. Oracle missed on revenues and working revenue, whereas boosting its full-year capex plans over 40% to $50 billion, elevating worries about when AI funding will translate to earnings. 

For the week, the Nasdaq-100® (blue line) and 10-year Treasury yields (black line) had been each roughly flat.

Subsequent Week

Listed below are the highest occasions I’m watching subsequent week:

1. November nonfarm Jobs on Tuesday
2. November CPI inflation on Thursday
3. October retail gross sales on Tuesday