Medicare Benefit progress decelerates as insurers shed members for 2026

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Medicare Benefit progress continues to gradual as Health insurance coverage giants pull again on this system, rattled by shrinking income.

Virtually 35.5 million folks have been enrolled within the privatized Medicare applications as of February, in contrast with about 34.4 million folks in the identical month final yr, in response to new authorities knowledge. That’s progress of about 3%, a determine that pales compared to MA’s historic progress, which might be as speedy as 10% yearly.

MA’s enlargement has decelerated in recent times as insurers retreat from this system, spooked by unfavorable regulatory adjustments and rising medical spending slicing into as soon as sky-high income.

A Healthcare Dive evaluation of the CMS knowledge launched final week reveals simply how drastically insurers pumped the brakes on their MA companies for 2026, doubling down on methods like exiting markets and rejiggering plan designs to push unprofitable members out of their plans.

The most important MA provider, UnitedHealthcare, enrolled simply shy of 9.4 million folks in this system as of February — down 9% from the ten.3 million IT enrolled in October, earlier than the beginning of Medicare’s open enrollment interval.

Equally, Elevance, Centene and CVS, three different massive individuals in MA, dropped 14%, 4% and three% of their members, respectively, when analyzing native and regional MA plans with prescription drug protection.

CVS, which provides Health plans below its Aetna insurance coverage division, now covers simply north of 4 million MA enrollees, down from 4.2 million within the fall. Elevance now enrolls 1.9 million members, down from 2.2 million; whereas Centene’s MA enrollment has fallen to below 1 million folks.

Humana is the notable exception to the development. The payer, the second-largest in MA, expanded its presence in this system this yr — a transfer that would lead to Humana supplanting UnitedHealthcare as the most important MA insurer. That may be a coup for the Louisville, Kentucky-based firm, which has lengthy performed second fiddle to the UnitedHealth division within the privatized Medicare program.

However IT’s additionally a big gamble, given forecasts that MA utilization and spending will proceed to extend this yr.

Humana introduced greater than 1 million extra members onto its MA plans, enrolling greater than 7 million folks in February. That’s up from 5.8 million earlier than open enrollment kicked off.

Nonetheless, Humana seems to be buying and selling that progress for decrease income. The corporate expects to make $9 in adjusted revenue per share this yr, considerably decrease than analysts anticipated and down about half from 2025’s earnings.

Main nonprofit Kaiser Permananente additionally expanded its membership, albeit much less dramatically than Humana. Kaiser’s MA enrollees are up 1% in comparison with the autumn, bringing the insurer’s whole enrollment to about 2 million folks.

Some smaller gamers additionally took the chance to nab extra members and lower into the market share of their bigger friends. 

Devoted Health, a privately held insurance coverage startup, greater than doubled its membership over open enrollment, from about 210,000 folks to nearly 470,000. Alignment Health, a smaller publicly traded insurer, elevated its MA membership by 21%, from 230,000 folks to nearly 280,000.

The SCAN Group, Conscious Built-in, Medica Holding Firm and CareSource additionally noticed notable MA enrollment progress.

Different payers that noticed massive declines embrace Blue Cross Blue Protect of Michigan, Health Care Service Company and Highmark Health.

Regardless of the enrollment shakeups, the identical giants — UnitedHealth, Humana and CVS — nonetheless management the lion’s share of the MA market. Nonetheless, analysts and executives anticipate additional membership shifts over the rest of the yr, given {that a} separate interval for MA enrollees to modify between plans runs via the top of March.

Additional enrollment adjustments would come on high of the millions of seniors that already chose a new Health plan after being impacted by insurer plan exits. Medicare enrollment for 2026 was atypically turbulent, in response to brokers, and 2027 might be extra of the identical — particularly if the Trump administration follows via on its plan to maintain cost charges flat.