Weekly Chartstopper: January 16, 2026

This Week

Geopolitics have been entrance and heart this week, so financial knowledge (understandably) was overshadowed. However IT was a fairly good week in knowledge:

• Headline CPI (2.7% YoY) and core CPI (2.6% YoY) have been each unchanged in December, as tariff-related inflation seems to have slowed, with the contribution from core items unchanged from November and down barely from its current highs in August and September.
• Retail gross sales (+0.6% m/m) rebounded in November on broad-based features.
• Manufacturing output (+0.2% m/m) rose greater than anticipated (-0.1%) in December.

That secure inflation and resilient spending and manufacturing knowledge meant market expectations for Fed fee cuts this 12 months fell to 45 foundation factors (bps) from almost 60 simply over every week in the past.

Elsewhere this week, fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off with the massive banks, however the greatest information got here from TSMC, which introduced plans to extend capex as a lot as 37% this 12 months and to “increase… capacity significantly” in 2028-29 given AI demand.

So, the online results of geopolitical occasions, decreased Fed fee lower expectations, however constructive indicators for AI demand was a 1% decline for the Nasdaq-100® this week (blue line), and an roughly 5bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields over 4.2% (black line).

Subsequent Week

Listed below are the highest occasions I’m watching subsequent week:

1. November PCE inflation and spending on Thursday
2. Prelim. January PMIs on Friday
3. Revised Q3 GDP on Thursday
4. Supreme Courtroom choices on Tuesday (if IEEPA tariffs determined)