Weekly Chartstopper: December 19, 2025

This Week

We received some main knowledge releases this week, however all of them got here with an enormous ol’ asterisk. (And AI spending remained a spotlight.)

1. The economic system misplaced 105,000 Jobs* in October and gained 64,000 in November.

   *DOGE’s deferred resignations, which paid staff via September, drove a 162,000 decline in federal employment.

2. The unemployment charge rose greater than anticipated to 4.6%** in November from 4.4% in September.

   **Probably boosted by the federal government shutdown since 75% of the rise in unemployment was from “short-term layoffs” – the class for furloughed federal staff.

3. Retail gross sales have been flat*** in October.

   ***Spending on autos fell 1.6% m/m after the September expiration of the EV tax credit score had pulled ahead demand, whereas decrease gasoline costs contributed to a 0.8% decline in spending at gasoline stations.

4. Headline CPI inflation slowed to 2.7% YoY**** in November from 3.0% in September.

   ****Two issues: First, the BLS assumed housing prices have been flat in October, miserable one of many largest weights within the CPI. Second, knowledge assortment started Nov. 14 as a result of authorities shutdown, so vacation reductions seemingly depressed costs.

So, for the week, the Nasdaq-100 is up +1% (blue line), and 10-year Treasury yields are down a couple of bp to 4.15% (black line).

Subsequent Week

Listed here are the highest occasions I’m watching subsequent week:

1. Third-quarter actual GDP on Tuesday
2. November industrial manufacturing on Tuesday
3. December shopper confidence on Monday
4. October sturdy items on Tuesday