November 2025 Overview and Outlook

Govt Abstract 

• The return of volatility reveals energy in equities, not weak point
• White Home points government order “Launching the Genesis Mission”
• Treasured metals proceed historic tempo as silver breaks out to new excessive
• Crude oil declined for fourth consecutive month nearing four-year low
• Sector rotation advantages healthcare, regional banks, homebuilders and transports

November was a unstable month for U.S. equities with the S&P 500 declining 5.7% from its October excessive, measuring its largest retracement since April. Nonetheless, the flagship index rebounded sharply into the month-end, eked out a modest 0.2% achieve, and prolonged its successful streak to seven months. In an indication of broadening energy, the S&P Midcap 400 and S&P 500 equal weight indices outperformed with positive factors of two% and 1.9%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 underperformed and broke its seven-month streak of positive factors pushed by revenue taking inside the high-flying Technology sector.

The month’s key themes revolved round shifting expectations for Federal Reserve coverage, intensifying scrutiny of AI-related spending, technical-driven volatility, and a White Home press launch asserting a nationwide initiative to speed up scientific discovery by means of AI. Early hawkish commentary and October FOMC minutes pushed December rate-cut odds beneath 30%, however dovish remarks later within the month reversed sentiment, lifting odds above 80% by month-end. The Technology area skilled a comparatively modest correction as traders reassessed valuations in AI-related infrastructure following an prolonged interval of sturdy efficiency. This recalibration displays wholesome market dynamics relatively than structural weak point, as long-term fundamentals for AI adoption stay intact. Technical elements akin to crowded momentum trades and liquidity deterioration amplified volatility, driving sharp rotations into beforehand underperforming industries like healthcare, homebuilders, airways, regional banks, and transports.

On Nov. 24, 2025, the White Home issued an government order, “Launching the Genesis Mission,” asserting a large-scale nationwide initiative to speed up scientific discovery by means of synthetic intelligence (AI). Led by the Division of Power, IT will create an built-in AI platform — the American Science and Safety Platform — combining high-performance computing, safe datasets, and AI basis fashions to automate analysis and drive breakthroughs in crucial areas akin to superior manufacturing, biotechnology, power, semiconductors, and quantum science. This system goals to strengthen U.S. technological management, improve nationwide safety, increase productiveness, and foster public-private partnerships, positioning America on the forefront of worldwide AI innovation.

Amid these crosscurrents, the basic backdrop remained supportive. Q3 earnings progress got here in at roughly 13.5%, properly above expectations, with an 83% beat charge. AI demand continues to indicate energy. General, whereas November featured vital swings and thematic volatility, the bullish narrative of stable earnings, favorable seasonality, and robust macro situations largely stayed intact.

Sector Efficiency

Massive-cap sector efficiency was extremely uneven, albeit eight of 11 teams completed greater. Technology (-4.3%) led declines amid heightened scrutiny of AI spending, momentum unwinds, and revenue taking; nevertheless, the sector stays practically 70% above its April low. Healthcare (+9.3%) was the standout sector with its finest month-to-month efficiency in three years whereas reaching new all-time highs. The month-to-month MACD indicator (measure of momentum; decrease panel) for the S&P 500 Healthcare Index registered a bullish cross signaling a optimistic pattern change in its long-term momentum.

In comparable style, small caps had been led by Healthcare (+9.9%) whereas Technology (-7.8%) deeply underperformed. Seven of 11 small cap sectors had been greater in November.

Charges, Oil, Bitcoin, and the Greenback

Treasuries had been greater for the fourth consecutive month, and the curve steepened because the 2yr yield fell 8bps to three.49% and the 10yr declined 7 foundation factors to 4.01%.

WTI crude declined 4% to $58.55 in November, its fourth consecutive month-to-month decline. The softening value is due partly to an excessive amount of provide chasing modest demand, together with easing geopolitical danger from Russia-Ukraine peace discuss hypothesis. WTI now stands roughly 4% from its April low, $55.12, which represents a crucial assist stage.

Following a 2% rally in October, the dollar ran right into a wall of technical resistance within the $99.58 – $100.82 vary which beforehand represented a assist zone from early 2023 by means of mid-2025 (“prior assist, now resistance”). This resistance is bolstered by the declining 40-week easy transferring common, sma (synonymous to the 200-day sma).

Treasured metals continued their historic run with gold and silver rising 5.9% and 16%, respectively. For 2025, gold and silver have risen +62% and +96%, respectively, their finest annual return since 1979.

Bitcoin declined 16.7% in November, erasing earlier positive factors and shutting the month 3% decrease YTD. On the intra-month low (80,554), bitcoin was down greater than 36% from its October excessive, resulting in vital technical harm within the charts. In early November, bitcoin knifed beneath its 200-d sma and shortly afterwards skilled a dying cross the place its 50-d sma crossed down beneath its 200-d sma. Regardless of rebounding greater than 12% off the November low, there was a significant shift in momentum seen within the month-to-month MACD (measure of momentum, decrease panel) which made a bearish cross over its sign line. Given its 715% achieve over the prior three years to its excessive in October, the present interval of corrective value motion might last more than many anticipate.

Wanting Forward

Regardless of the latest rise in volatility and corrective value motion, there are causes for optimism over the close to time period. The restoration off the November lows was broad based mostly and accompanied by a wholesome rotation into the beforehand underperforming healthcare, power, supplies, transports, homebuilders, and regional banks. Market breadth is stable as evidenced by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index and the small cap Russell 2000 Index that are inside 1% and a pair of%, respectively, of latest all-time highs. Power costs and charges are close to multi-year lows, which bodes properly for customers. Seasonal tendencies additionally favor equities into year-end with December traditionally rating within the high quartile of efficiency on common. Whereas a December charge reduce is extensively anticipated, Chair Powell’s steering on the trajectory of cuts in 2026 shall be crucial for sustaining momentum.

---

The Information contained herein is offered for informational and academic functions solely, and nothing contained herein ought to be construed as funding recommendation, both on behalf of a specific safety or an general funding technique. All Information contained herein is obtained by Nasdaq from sources believed by Nasdaq to be correct and dependable. Nonetheless, all Information is offered “as is” with out guarantee of any variety. ADVICE FROM SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.