Cussed Inflation: Shopper Costs Are available Increased Than Anticipated

A largely graphical day by day curated roundup of the markets and the financial system from Nasdaq’s IR group.


Cussed inflation | Shopper costs +0.3% in Dec, increased than anticipated, pushing the annual price to three.4% (shelter prices, meals costs, power costs rose) -CNBC

Nonetheless trending above 2%…some extra work left

“Fed may have three extra CPI prints, beginning at this time, earlier than the March assembly. So issues can nonetheless change” -Deutsche Financial institution

us consumer price index

us consumer price index

* supply: CNBC

| fairness markets not liking the paring again of price reduce odds…markets like simple cash!


* supply: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau

| Earnings + Buybacks key drivers for market efficiency in 2024 | Buyers Are Seeking to Share Buybacks to Hold US Inventory Market Afloat -BBG

| Quickest easing of monetary situations in historical past – a powerful tailwind for the This autumn rally…what’s subsequent for the markets?


1) Equities + TYields MIXED / Gold + Greenback + Oil HIGHER

SPX closed lower than 1% from its all-time excessive yesterday

DJ +0.0% S&P500 -0.1% Nasdaq +0.0% R2K -0.6% Cdn TSX -0.2%

Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1% APAC shares HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.032%

Greenback HIGHER, Gold $2,0258, WTI +2%, $73; Brent +2%, $78, Bitcoin $48,950

2) JP Morgan’s Investor Survey…buyers are neither bearish or bullish on equities

figure 1

nothing new right here however price cuts are anticipated…and if the Fed doesn’t ship the markets will throw a tantrum

figure 6

* supply: JP Morgan

3) latest rise in yields have harm world equities


* supply: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau

4) Valuations by Nasdaq Financial Analysis, Michael Normyle

most sectors are comparatively near their common PE valuation during the last 10 years (chart under, dots close to 45-degree line) – besides IT (wealthy) and Power (low cost)

So these sectors are comparatively “pretty valued,” with buyers prepared to pay roughly the identical quantity for future earnings as they’ve during the last 10 years.


* supply: Nasdaq Financial Analysis

“equities (ex-US/Tech) don’t look costly”


* supply: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau

5) “we’ve seen one other large spike because of assaults by the Houthi rebels within the Purple Sea, which has led to large diversions as container ships go around the Cape of Good Hope as a substitute. Because of this, freight prices have doubled from their ranges in November and with the newest weekly quantity out at this time, are up +85% since December twenty first.

..these occasions function a reminder that IT can solely take one shock to throw the disinflation path off track. Clearly if the present state of affairs is resolved then IT might reverse shortly once more, however we’ve already seen how geopolitical points can have large results on inflation, most notably after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

So the general provide image has been trying superb for inflation, and even this spike is comparatively small within the large image for the reason that pandemic, however keep watch over occasions within the Purple Sea.” -Deutsche Financial institution, Jim Reid

figure 1

* supply: Deutsche Financial institution

6) all eyes on earnings…

“Given issues out there a couple of doable financial slowdown or recession, have analysts lowered EPS estimates greater than regular for S&P 500 corporations for the fourth quarter?

THE ANSWER IS YES. In the course of the fourth quarter, analysts lowered EPS estimates for the quarter by a bigger margin than common.” -John Butters, Factset Perception


* supply: Factset Perception

7) 2023 = vital dispersion throughout markets during the last 2 years


* supply: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau

8) World M&A deal rely “has collapsed”

higher cost


* supply: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau

9) Equities have been overbought? | “On the similar time, a flurry of indicators level to overbought situations in equities such because the low quick curiosity on SPY and QQQ ETFs in Determine 15”

figure 15

* supply: JP Morgan

10) hitting the brakes on financial tightening | “Current feedback counsel that the FOMC will wish to transfer extra fastidiously as IT approaches the stopping level for steadiness sheet runoff. Because of this, we now count on the FOMC to start tapering the tempo of runoff in Could.”

we now expect

* supply: Goldman Sachs World Funding Analysis

11) THIS WEEK: US CPI / PPI key spotlight (Thursday) | Taiwan Prez election

key events

* supply: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau


Even BlackRock Funds Shopping for Oil Shares Are Banned by Texas ESG Combat – BNN

-Texas bars its public pensions from investing in 350 funds run by asset-management giants equivalent to BlackRock Inc. and Invesco Ltd. as a result of a key Republican state official says they “boycott” the oil and fuel industries.

-A Bloomberg Information evaluation discovered that the 72 BlackRock funds on the prohibited record have invested greater than $2 billion within the oil business, whereas an Invesco fund allocates about 20% to grease and pure fuel corporations, a few of that are additionally Texas-based.

World’s renewable power capability grew at report tempo in 2023 – Guardian

-The world’s renewable power grew by 50% final 12 months to 510 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, the twenty second 12 months in a row that renewable capability additions set a brand new report, in accordance with figures from the IEA.

-The IEA’s newest report discovered that solar energy accounted for three-quarters of the brand new renewable power capability put in worldwide final 12 months. A lot of the world’s new solar energy was inbuilt China.


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  • Shari Redstone launches public sale of Paramount World’s holding company-NYP
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  • Volkswagen CFO touts EV flexibility as Tesla closes in on Audi-BBG
  • Citadel Securities is solely world bidder for Credit score Suisse ChinaBBG

Oil/Power Headlines: 1) Asia demand for Saudi oil holds regular regardless of worth cuts-RTRS 2) OPEC+ crude manufacturing rises in December forward of Q1 quota drops: Platts survey-Platts 3) Russia’s oil and fuel funds income down 24% in 2023-RTRS 4) Norway’s oil and fuel corporations to step up exploration this year-BBG 5) Ecuador says oil, mining, power sectors working usually regardless of violence-RTRS6) Chesapeake to purchase Southwestern Power in $7.4 billion deal-RTRS

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